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This story was produced as part of the Colorado Capitol News Alliance. It first appeared at cpr.org.
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A new poll is giving Democrats hope that the race in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District could still be competitive.
According to an internal poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the U.S. House Democrats’ campaign arm, Democratic challenger Dwayne Romero has a 1-percentage-point lead over Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Jeff Hurd.
Voters in the 3rd District have not voted for a Democrat to represent them since 2008.
Romero led Hurd 47% to 46%, with 8% undecided, in the poll of 402 likely voters conducted from Oct. 20-21.
The slim lead was within the poll’s 4.9 percentage point margin of error.
It’s a slight improvement for Romero, a former Aspen city councilman, since his campaign released poll this summer where Hurd, who lives in Grand Junction, led by 1 point.
“These results show that the people of CD3 are ready for someone who will fight to lower costs, protect Social Security, and hold corrupt politicians accountable — not rubber-stamp Washington’s chaos,” Romero said Friday.
Polling is a snapshot in time and has been less reliable during the Trump years.
In some ways the race for the 3rd District, which encompasses the Western Slope and southern Colorado, has been a sleeper compared to the other Republican incumbents defending their seats in the state. But one key sign that Republicans may be worried is how much they’re spending in the race.
There’s been more than $2.5 million in outside spending supporting Hurd and opposing Romero. More than $1.8 million came from the Safety & Affordability PAC, a super PAC linked to President Donald Trump’s MAGA, Inc.
Across broadcast television and digital streaming, voters in Western and southern Colorado have been peppered with ads calling Romero a liberal and accusing him of underhanded deals during his time on Aspen City Council.
Romero has had some support.
The DCCC just ended a TV ad run with Romero and the DCCC chair, U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene, a Democrat from Washington, took a campaign swing through Carbondale this past weekend with Romero. It’s a sign they’re not giving up entirely on the race, even as the House Majority PAC, the another House Democratic super PAC, recently cancelled its ad reservations in the race.
Hurd won the seat by 5 percentage points in 2024 in a district Trump won by 10 points.
The DCCC poll also found that Trump’s approval rating is 35%, with a 58% disapproval rating.
That echoes recent polling that shows voters nationwide are souring on Trump and the Republican Party’s ability to tackle issues that are top of mind, like the economy and health care.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found voters say they’re likely to send a Democrat to Congress over a Republican by a 10-point margin. And several recent polls find that Trump’s approval ratings are at an all-time low.
Another recent poll released by Democratic candidate Jessica Killin’s campaign this week also found Trump underwater in the 5th Congressional District, where 40% view him favorably and 56% view him unfavorably.
Killin had a slight lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Crank in that poll, leading 46-42% in a two-person race, an advantage that was also within the margin of error.
The 5th District, centered around El Paso County, has never sent a Democrat to Congress.
One thing is clear, Republicans are on the defense in Colorado this year. Whether Trump becomes an anchor around these incumbents, however, remains to be seen.
Two non-partisan election prognosticators — the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball — moved Colorado U.S. House races in Democrats’ favor his week. But none were Hurd’s district, which remains rated “likely Republican” by both prognosticators.
Cook and Sabato moved Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans’ 8th Congressional District seat from toss-up to leans Democratic, while Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert’s race against Democrat Eileen Laubacher in the 4th Congressional District was moved from solid Republican to lean Republican by both.
The 4th District is mostly rural and covers the Eastern Plains, but the population center is Douglas County on the Front Range.
This story was produced by the Capitol News Alliance, a collaboration between KUNC News, Colorado Public Radio, Rocky Mountain PBS, and The Colorado Sun, with support from news outlets throughout the state. Startup funding for the Alliance was provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.